Heatwaves Could Seriously Stunt India’s Economic Growth: Study

Catch Dr Ramit Debnath, Inaugural Cambridge Zero Fellow, University of Cambridge in conversation with Business Today TV Managing Editor Siddharth Zarabi on a study by the University of Cambridge that states that heatwaves could seriously stunt India’s economic growth. According to the study, rising temperatures could cross the survivability limit for a healthy human by 2050 and have a massive impact on public health, food availability and socio-economic systems. The study warns that the Indian government is not taking this into consideration in its economic planning. April has already seen an orange warning being issued by the Indian Meteorological Department for six states. The IMD warned of serious heat conditions over Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar, Sikkim, Odisha, Jharkhand and Andhra Pradesh. This heat could even shrivel the Indian economy. A study by the Britain’s University of Cambridge has warned that these heatwaves are holding back the development of Asia's third-largest economy and the impact is not being measured by the Indian government in its economic or climate forecasts. The study warns about the damage to the high proportion of rural workers and labourers forced to work outside even as temperatures and humidity soar. The researchers measured the physical impact of last year's record-breaking 49 degrees Celsius heat on India's population and found that the country's population is among the most at risk of the effects of high heat, which is becoming more severe with climate change.

Incredibly, India recorded 242 days of extreme weather conditions in the first ten months of 2022, making it nearly one extreme event daily. The study says that as much as 90% of India’s total area now lies in extreme heat danger zones. According to the study, Indian heatwaves could cross the survivability limit for a healthy human resting in the shade by 2050. Moreover, the heatwaves will impact labour productivity, economic growth and quality of life of around 310–480 million people. Estimates show a 15% decrease in outdoor working capacity during daylight hours due to extreme heat by 2050. The increased heat is expected to cost India 2.8% of its GDP by 2050 and an incredible 8.7% of its GDP by 2100.